This has been the long road towards who will walk away with the Oscar at the 86th Academy Awards on March 2, 2014. Just as in years past, I, for one, find value to tracking who and what has won what from the build-up of the smaller awards all the way up to big show. I find that the “tea leaves” and trends really shine through as the smaller awards pile up for a great many categories. This is my tracking of the major and minor award winners leading up the the Oscars. See who and what has won in the Oscar categories leading up to Sunday’s final awards.
Latest Buzz: After a win at the Golden Globes, 12 Years a Slave is starting to cement at least the legacy of winning Best Picture. It’s starting to get chopped down a bit in other categories, which might open the window to an upset come next month at the Oscars. A tie from the Producers Guild between 12 Years a Slave and Gravity is another indication of an upset brewing, while the Critics Choice Award going to 12 Years a Slave only adds to the up and down nature of the race.
25- 12 Years a Slave (Boston, DC. SE, Chicago, SF, PHX, STL, BO, DFW, FL, HOU, IND, LV, NYO, Online, AWFJ, VAN, London, NC, IA, KC, Globe, AA, PGA, CC, BAFTA, Satellite)
7- Gravity (LA, Utah, NT, AACTA, PGA, CO, DEN)
7- Her (NBR, LA, SF, AUS, DET, GA, OK)
3- Inside Llewyn Davis (GIFA, TOR, NSFC)
1- American Hustle (NY)
1- Fruitvale Station (Sundance)
1- Blue is the Warmest Colour (Cannes)
1- Star Trek Into Darkness (HFA)
Latest Buzz: After a back and forth dogfight most of the awards season, Cuaron takes the lead with a big Golden Globe win. Winning the recent DGA award might put him on top for good, barring an unforeseen upset.
25- Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity (LA, DC, SF, SD, PHX, TOR, Utah, AUS, DFW, HOU, NYO, Online, KC, Globe, DET, VAN, OK, London, GA, DEN, CO, NT, CC, BAFTA, AACTA, DGA)
15- Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave (NY, IA, SE, Boston, Chicago, STL, BO, FL, IND, LV, AWFJ, KC, NC, AA, Satellite)
1- Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis (NSFC)
1- Spike Jonze, Her (NBR)
1- Lee Daniels, Lee Daniels’ The Butler (HFA)
1- Jill Soloway, Afternoon Delight (Sundance)
1- Amat Escalante, Heli (Cannes)
Latest Buzz: The buzz of the Golden Globes has breathed big time life into the possibility of Matthew McConaughey. Believe his direct win over Ejiofor more than DiCaprio’s win for the same award in the comedy/musical category. All three men will make the final fine, but McConaughey’s respect is gaining serious steam. The next checkpoint for an Oscar pulse came at the SAG Awards when he was judged by his acting peers. The SAG win for McConaughey is huge.
24- Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave (Boston, DC, SE, Chicago, SF, STL, Utah, AUS, BO, FL, HOU, IND, NYO, Online, OK, London, NC, IA, GA, KC, CO, NT, AACTA, BAFTA)
12- Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club (GIFA, HFA, PHX, DFW, LV, AWFJ, DEN, Globe, DET, SAG, CC, Satellite)
4- Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis (SD, TOR, NSFC, VAN)
3- Bruce Dern, Nebraska (Cannes, NBR, LA)
1- Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street (Globe)
1- Robert Redford, All Is Lost (NY)
1- Forrest Whitaker, Lee Daniels’ The Butler (AA)
Latest Buzz: Cate Blanchett maintained her lock status with a drama lead win at the Golden Globes and followed it up with a SAG win as well. Much like Best Actor, don’t believe the hype of the Amy Adams win for American Hustle. This is all Cate.
31- Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine (NY, Boston, LA, DC, SE, Chicago, SF, SD, PHX, STL, TOR, BO, DFW, FL, NYO, VAN, OK, London, NC, IA, GA, DEN, Online, AWFJ, NSFC, Globe, AACTA, SAG, CC, BAFTA, Satellite)
5- Sandra Bullock, Gravity (HFA, HOU, KC, NT, AA)
4- Adele Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Colour (LA, Utah, IND, CO)
3- Brie Larson, Short Term 12 (GIFA, AUS, DET)
2- Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks (NBR, LV)
1- Amy Adams, American Hustle (Globe)
1- Berenice Bejo, The Past (Cannes)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Latest Buzz: Like Blanchett, Leto continues to run away with this awards race in this category. There is not a believable scenario where I see him losing. The Golden Globe and SAG wins seal it. He passes Blanchett as the future and biggest “lock of the night.”
27- Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club (NY, LA, DC, Chicago, SE, SD, PHX, STL, TOR, AUS, BO, DFW, FL, HOU, LV, VAN, OK, DEN, NYO, AWFJ, Globe, DET, NT, AA, SAG, CC, Satellite)
6- Michael Fassbender- 12 Years a Slave (Online, KC, AACTA, GA, IA, NC)
4- James Franco, Spring Breakers (LA, SF, NSFC, CO)
3- Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips (IND, London, BAFTA)
1- James Gandolfini, Enough Said (Boston)
1- Will Forte, Nebraska (NBR)
1- Jake Gyllenhaal, Prisoners (HFA)
1- Bill Nighy, About Time (Utah)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Latest Buzz: I know the total award wins and scores don’t show it, but this race is a heck of a lot closer than 22-13 suggests following Lawrence’s upset win at the Golden Globes. Like the other acting awards, the next judgment and separator happens at the SAG Awards between these two. That’s where Nyong’o won and might have the edge, especially with the Critics Choice in her pocket as well.
22- Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave (LA, DC, SE, Chicago, PHX. STL, AUS, BO, DFW, FL, HOU, LV, NYO, Online, London, NC, IA, GA, AWFJ, KC, SAG, CC)
13- Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle (NY, VAN, OK, SF, TOR, IND, NSFC, Globe, NT, AACTA, CO, DEN, BAFTA)
2- June Squibb, Nebraska (Boston, Satellite)
2- Scarlett Johansson, Her (Utah, DET)
1- Julia Roberts, August: Osage County (HFA)
1- Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station (NBR)
1- Shailene Woodley, The Spectacular Now (SD)
1- Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels’ The Butler (AA)
BEST ENSEMBLE (non-Oscar category)
Latest Buzz: The Screen Actors Guild had the final say in this non-Oscar category. It’s kind of that group’s award for Best Picture, even though it’s labeled “Best Ensemble.” The win for American Hustle lets you know how serious of an upset contender it is for Best Picture at the Oscars.
11- American Hustle (SE, SD, PHX, NYO, AWFJ, DET, SAG, CO, CC, GA)
2- 12 Years a Slave (DC, BO)
1- Prisoners (NBR)
1- Nebraska (Boston)
1- Mud (Spirit)
1- August: Osage County (HFA)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Latest Buzz: We might have our second lock of locks, especially now after the Golden Globe win in a combined category with the adapted screenplay contenders. With Gravity and 12 Years a Slave stealing all the Best Picture votes, Spike Jonze’s film Her seems to always come up in #2. This is the perfect category to award this film’s greatness and spread the overall wealth of the awards night. A potential win for Her has been further cemented by a win from the WGA, its own field.
21- Spike Jonze, Her (DC, OK, SE, Chicago, SD, STL, TOR, AUS, FL, IND, LV, NYO, Online, AWFJ, KC, Globe, CO, DET, GA, CC, WGA)
6- Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell, American Hustle (NY, SF, AACTA, DEN, BAFTA, Satellite)
4- Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis (NBR, NC, London, VAN)
1- Bob Nelson, Nebraska (PHX)
1- Nicole Holofcener, Enough Said (Boston)
1- Simon Pegg and Edgar Wright, The World’s End (Utah)
1- Lake Bell, In a World… (Sundance)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Latest Buzz: This is a two-horse race for sure, but the Golden Globes did nothing to clear it up with the combined category win for Her. 12 Years a Slave gets the push of being the Best Picture favorite. If voters want to spread the wealth, watch out for the beloved Before Midnight. This could surprise like Woody Allen’s Midnight in Paris win two years ago. The WGA award was supposed to clear the fog from the crystal ball, but they selected Billy Ray’s work for Captain Phillips, not one of the leaders.
18- John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave (DC, OK, SE, Chicago, SF, PHX, STL, AUS, DFW, FL, HOU, Online, AWFJ, KC, AA, CC, NC, USC)
7- Richard Linklater, Ethan Hawke, and Julie Delpy, Before Midnight (LA, HFA, SD, Utah, BO, IND, NSFC)
3- Terrance Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street (NBR, CO, DEN)
2- Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope, Philomena (BAFTA, Satellite)
1- Billy Ray, Captain Phillips (WGA)
1- Destin Cretton, Short Term 12 (GA)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Latest Buzz: If Brave somehow won last year and beat both Disney and the foreign competition, I don’t see the extremely popular Frozen losing. A win at the Annie Awards, this area’s own field, adds more concrete to this race. This is a lock sealed by the Golden Globe, Annie, and PGA wins. Don’t let the love for The Wind Rises love fool you. On a side note, in the Animated Short field, the Annie Award also went to Disney with Get a Horse!
25- Frozen (OK, GA, IA, DEN, DC, SE, SF, PHX, STL, Utah, AUS, BO, DFW, FL, HOU, IND, LV, KC, Globe, NT, CC, AA, Annie, PGA, BAFTA)
11- The Wind Rises (NBR, NY, Boston, Chicago, SD, TOR, BO, NYO, Online, AWFJ, CO, Satellite)
2- Monsters University (HFA, NC)
1- Ernest and Celestine (LA)
1- Despicable Me (KC)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Latest Buzz: In the last update, Stories We Tell was on top, but the critics groups have galvanized behind The Act of Killing and it has become the consensus favorite. This category still has a long history of skewing screwy. Take the recent win out of nowhere for We Steal Secrets: The Story of WikiLeaks from the Producers Guild of America.
21- The Act of Killing (Boston, GIFA, SE, Chicago, SF, SD, TOR, Utah, AUS, BO, FL, IND, NYO, Online, KC, CO, VAN, NSFC, OK, London, DEN, BAFTA)
7- Stories We Tell (NBR, NY, LA, AWFJ, DET, GA, NC)
6- 20 Feet from Stardom (PHX, DFW, HOU, NT, CC, IA)
4- Blackfish (DC, STL, LV, Satellite)
1- Blood Brother (Sundance)
1- American Promise (AA)
1- We Steal Secrets: The Story of WikiLeaks (PGA)
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Latest Buzz: I’ve been touting here all awards season that this was Blue is the Warmest Colour and everyone else. The surprise win from The Great Beauty at the Golden Globes is either a blip on the radar screen or sign of voters not ready to honor a three-hour NC-17 eyebrow-raiser. All of that makes a complete Oscar shutout for nominations for Blue is the Warmest Color a real shocker. This race is now wide open and anyone’s guess. Get the dartboard out.
18- Blue is the Warmest Colour (NY, SF, PHX, STL, Utah, AUS, BO, DFW, FL, IND, LV, NYO, Online, KC, NSFC, NT, London, CC)
6- The Hunt (SE, HOU, AWFJ, NC, OK, VAN)
2- The Grandmaster (NT, DEN)
2- The Broken Circle Breakdown (DC, Satellite)
1- The Wind Rises (CO)
1- The Great Beauty (Globe)
1- The Act of Killing (Chicago)
1- The Past (NBR)
1- Wadjda (Boston)
1- Drug War (SD)
1- A Touch of Sin (TOR)
1- Mother of George (AA)
1- No (GA)
Latest Buzz: In another lock, look for Gravity to start sweeping technical categories starting right here with Lubeski’s extremely deserving work. This race was recently cemented by Lubeski’s win from his peers at the American Society of Cinematographers.
22- Emmanuel Lubeski, Gravity (Boston, LA, DC, SE, Chicago, SF, PHX, STL, Utah, AUS, DFW, FL, HOU, LV, NYO, GA, CO, Online, AWFJ, NT, CC, BAFTA, ASC)
4- Bruno Delbonnel, Inside Llewyn Davis (NY, BO, NSFC, Satellite)
1- Sean Bobbitt, 12 Years a Slave (STL)
1- Emamanuel Lubeski, To the Wonder (SD)
1- Bradford Young, Ain’t Them Bodies Saints and Mother of George (Sundance)
BEST ART DIRECTION/PRODUCTION DESIGN
Latest Buzz: The division here is between real and created. The Great Gatsby is old school with many viable sets and designs versus the entirely digital landscape of Gravity. This will be an interesting race. Within the actual Art Directors, they give an internal award in three categories (period, fantasy, and contemporary). The trio honored were The Great Gatsby, Gravity, and Her.
8- The Great Gatsby (DC, SD, STL, FL, CC., ADG, BAFTA, Satellite)
6- Gravity (Chicago, SF, PHX, LV, GA. ADG)
2- Her (LA. ADG)
BEST FILM EDITING
Latest Buzz: The technical windfall keeps coming for Gravity, even though this category historically sides with the Best Picture favorite. Don’t count out 12 Years a Slave. The ACE Eddie Awards from this actual guild sided with Captain Phillips and American Hustle blurring the race further away from Gravity.
9- Gravity (LA, DC, Chicago, SF, PHX, LV, Online, AWFJ, CC)
2- American Hustle (ACE, Satellite)
2- Captain Phillips (SD, ACE)
2- Rush (Boston, BAFTA)
1- 12 Years a Slave (BO)
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Latest Buzz: It’s almost too early to tell her with so few wins to work with. This is anyone’s race. The small majority leads to The Great Gatsby, as you can see.
3- The Great Gatsby (PHX, CC, BAFTA)
2- 12 Years a Slave (LV, CDG)
1- American Hustle (HFA)
1- Blue Jasmine (CDG)
1- The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (CDG)
1- The Invisible Woman (Satellite)
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Latest Buzz: Zip on the buzz here. Personally, I think the epic Christian Bale comb-over from American Hustle is worth an Oscar. From a volume standpoint, I don’t think anything comes close to The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
2- American Hustle (CC, BAFTA)
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Latest Buzz: Mail this one to the bank for Gravity. Sorry, superheroes.
7- Gravity (PHX, STL, FL, Online, CC, London, Satellite)
1- Pacific Rim (HFA)
BEST SOUND EDITING AND MIXING
Latest Buzz: Here’s another technical place for Gravity. Don’t be surprised if it pulls a Life of Pi and wins the most Oscars without winning Best Picture.
4- Gravity (Online, BAFTA, Satellite, CAS)
1- Frozen (CAS)
BEST MUSICAL SCORE
Latest Buzz: I said it in my formal Golden Globes prediction article. If any musical score really had to represent itself and its movie it’s Alex Ebert’s work for All Is Lost. In a movie with almost zero dialogue, the music has to become a character. The Golden Globes did not nominate the frontrunner of Arcade Fire for Her, but with All Is Lost not making the Oscar field, Her is back in front. Watch out for a late surge from Gravity.
6- Arcade Fire, Her (Chicago, SD, STL, AUS, CO, GA)
6- Stephen Price, Gravity (DFW, HOU, CC, DEN, BAFTA, Satellite)
4- Hans Zimmer, 12 Years a Slave (DC, BO, IND, LV)
4- T. Bone Burnett, Inside Llewyn Davis (Boston, LA, NYO, AWFJ)
1- Alex Ebert, All Is Lost (Globe)
1- Raphael Sadiq, Black Nativity (AA)
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Latest Buzz: As with all of the many surprises and upsets at the Golden Globes, I don’t buy the new lead path of U2’s song from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom. I think the big show will nominate the star power of U2 and get a performance from them, but I still believe this is Frozen‘s award to win. Sorry, Inside Llewyn Davis.
3- “Let it Go” by Idina Menzel, Frozen (PHX, CC, DEN)
3- “Please Mr. Kennedy” by Oscar Issac, Justin Timberlake, and Adam Driver, Inside Llewyn Davis (HOU, LV, GA)
1- “Young and Beautiful” by Lana Del Rey, The Great Gatsby (Satellite)
1- “Ordinary Love” by U2, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (Globe)
1- “Atlas” by Coldplay, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (HFA)
ACRONYM KEY FOR AWARD GROUPS
African-American Film Critics Association (AA), Australian Academy of Cinema and Television Arts/Australian Film Institute (AACTA), ACE Eddie Awards (ACE), Art Directors Guild Awards (ADG), Annie Awards (Annie), American Society of Cinematographers (ASC), Alliance of Women Film Journalists (AWFJ), Austin Film Critics Association (AUS), British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA), Boston Society of Film Critics (Boston), Boston Online Film Critics Associaion, (BO), Cannes Film Festival (Cannes), Cinema Audio Society (CAS), Costume Designers Guild (CDG), Chicago Film Critics Association (Chicago), Critics Choice Awards (CC), Central Ohio Film Critics Associations (CO), Washington D.C. Area Film Critics Association (DC), Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association (DFW), Denver Film Critics Society (DEN), Detroit Film Critics Society (DET), Florida Film Critics Circle (FL), Georgia Film Critics Association (GA), Gotham Independant Film Awards (GIFA), Hollywood Foreign Press Association/Golden Globes (Globe), Hollywood Film Awards (HFA), Houston Film Critics Society (HOU), Iowa Film Critics (IA), Indiana Film Journalist Associations (IND), Kansas City Film Critics Circle (KC), Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LA), London Film Critics Circle (London), Las Vegas Film Critics Association (LV), National Board of Review (NBR), North Carolina Film Critics Association (NC), National Society of Film Critics (NSFC), North Texas Film Critics Association (NT), New York Film Critics Circle (NY), New York Online Film Critics Association (NYO), Oklahoma Film Critics Circle (OK), Online Film Critics Association (Online), Producers Guild of America (PGA), Phoenix Film Critics Society (PHX), Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAG), Satellite Awards (Satellite), San Diego Film Critics Society (SD), San Francisco Film Critics Circle (SF), Southeastern Film Critics Association (SE), St. Louis Film Critics (STL), Sundance Film Festival (Sundance), Toronto Film Critics Association (TOR), USC Libraries Scripter Award (USC), Utah Film Critics Association (Utah), Vancouver Critics Circle (VAN), Writers Guild of America (WGA)